PBA COMMISSIONER'S CUP QUARTERFINALS PREVIEW: RAIN OR SHINE VS GINEBRA

by garrett_jax Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:58 pm

Rain or Shine vs Barangay Ginebra. In a battle of two offensive-minded teams, defense could very well be the determining factor in this quarterfinal match-up.

Ginebra does not have the luxury of dropping a game as the ElastoPainters hold a twice-to-beat advantage. But nobody's expecting the number two seed Rain or Shine to just settle and merely be at par with seventh-ranked Ginebra when they start to battle in the quarterfinal round of the PBA's second conference. Yeng Guiao's troops know very well that they will be setting themselves up to a major disadvantage if their opponents manage to force a do-or-die game.

In their lone meeting this conference, RoS squeezed a slim 96-93 victory over their rivals. Beau Belga led five other players in a Rain or Shine uniform to score double-figures in that March 3 duel.

The loss gave Ginebra reason to panic as they fell 1-6 towards the middle of the Commissioner's Cup. But somehow they were able to remain calm and collected, stringing six straight wins in what everybody thought was already a lost conference.

WHY GINEBRA WILL WIN

This team thrives on being the underdogs. They might actually be able to use their twice-to-beat disadvantage in their favor. Never say die, they say.

Alfrancis Chua might have lifted a page off Yeng Guiao's playbook when during their six-game streak, people were guessing who will explode next for Ginebra. Injuries forced Chua to do a bit of shuffling. One night it's Billy Mamaril, the next game it would be Elmer Espiritu, then all of a sudden Mac Baracael decided to get on the spotlight as well.

But ultimately, it was LA Tenorio who proved to be the most consistent Gin King in the absence of Mark Caguioa. Clearly, Tenorio has reintroduced himself as one of the league's premier players. The turbo-quick guard has given opposing defense conundrums on what he'll do with the basketball. Will he penetrate and blow past you, bury you with a jumper or lob it in the air for a Vernon Macklin slam dunk? Continue to guess.

The news that Josh Urbiztondo has joined the Ginebra camp definitely pose problems to Rain or Shine. I don't think Chua will utilize Urbiztondo merely as Tenorio's backup. He'll play the two position with Caguioa out. And if he does, and does do well -- he'll be the x-factor in this series.

WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN

This well-balanced team does not rely on one player alone. As a testament, there's no staple in Rain or Shine's starting five. What Alfrancis Chua has been doing out of necessity, Yeng Guiao has been doing on a regular basis. Shuffling players is an integral part of the Guiao System. From Paul Lee to Jeff Chan to JR Quiñahan, anyone can deliver for the ElastoPainters.

Well, if there's one player who've managed to get the starting nod for all of Rain or Shine's elimination round games, it has to be Bruno Sundov. Of course for an obvious reason, it's an import-laced conference. What's crucial for Sundov is this: he has to stay out of foul trouble.

The import, who as early as the Philippine Cup Finals was itching to help the team, has got to keep his fouls in check. Rain or Shine needs him all playoffs long for them to better their runner-up finish last conference.

But the real key for Rain or Shine is to make sure that LA Tenorio will be a marked man in this series. Gabe Norwood, Paul Lee, Ty Tang and Jireh Ibanes will have to alternate in distracting Tenorio's play. If the ElastoPainters can find a way to stop the exploits of the Ginebra guard, they will be in a good position to march on to the next round.

ODDS OF AN UPSET: Very likely.

QUESTION IS: Can Ginebra force a do-or-die game?

PICK: Ginebra. Only if, they will be able to force Rain or Shine in a do-or-die battle.

source:http://www.solarsportsdesk.ph/