Philippine Cup QF Series Preview: Rain or Shine vs. Ginebra

Philippine Cup QF Series Preview: Rain or Shine vs. Ginebra
BY Robi Raya



How did they get here?

Gaining momentum and confidence from their title run last conference, and with its key players getting a boost of valuable international experience, the Rain Or Shine Elasto Painters were primed to establish itself as an elite franchise going into the Philippine Cup.

They did just that by flaunting an OKC Thunder-like-growth-with-continuity banner and having a very good system in place that had clearly defined roles for Jeff Chan to Jonathan Uyloan and that pushed for total team effort. Despite being handicapped by injuries to its best playmaker, Paul Lee (played only the last game), to its glue guy rookie, Chris Tiu (played only 4 games), and to arguably the best perimeter defender in the L in Jireh Ibanes, ROS wasn’t deterred from playing very well night in and night out in the elimination round, ending up with a 9-5 record at third place.

If you can describe the Painters’ elimination round run as “smooth”, BGSM’s was almost every bit the opposite of that. A graph of Ginebra’s season so far would look like a lifeline with a slew of winning and losing streaks. For the better part of the season, they battled thru identity crisis: struggling to incorporate the wheel that steers the car (L.A. Tenorio) while prematurely giving new players heavy responsibilities. At one point, everything looked bleak for the Barangay. Their offense was futile. It stunk. It sucked.


Alas, when Coach Siot recovered from amnesia — at the point when he decided “Eff this! I’m going back to my oldies”, when he tightened up his rotation while shoving Mark Caguioa to the starting lineup — BGSM caught fire on both ends. That crucial decision consequently salvaged their season and it led to a 7-7 finish, good for 6th best.

Tipping Points

Barangay Ginebra won the season series 2-nil. Everything was on ceteris paribus (practically equal on all stats) mode except for one aspect that swayed both games to BGSM: REBOUNDING. Ginebra partied on the boards in both of their games with a whopping +27 and +8 rebounding advantages in the first and second games respectively.

Rain or Shine’s DEPTH and UNPREDICTABILITY will be the most telling factor in this series. If the Painters make the series a track meet to 100 points and get all sorts of contributions from its 12-man rotation (Yes, Coach Yeng regularly plays 12. How, is beyond me.), “ilista mo na” for ROS.

PHYSICALITY. As they say, “Sino ang unang magpapaakpekto?”



KEY MATCH-UP

The best and the most consistent players from both teams: Mark Caguioa (18 ppg 4 rpg 2 apg 1 spg) vs. Jeff Chan (18 ppg 4 rpg 2 apg). Who will have a harder time against the other team’s stoppers?



X-FACTOR

Jervy Cruz’s brilliance this season has been like a dry milk stain on a white shirt. Nobody even notices it. And I think that’s the way he likes it. He’s a reserved stud dropping quiet 12 and 9 games every night. Arguably the Painters’ 2nd best player all season long, he leads a very potent ROS frontcourt against an often futile BGSM big man crew.

Chris Ellis can potentially be the swing guy in this series. How much harder will he make things for Jeff Chan?

PREDICTIONS

Their two elims games were very close and ROS played those games without, IMO, their 2nd best player in Paul Lee. I think Paul Lee and Chris Tiu coming back will make a big diff in this series. I have ROS in 3 with 70% confidence. Make that a hundred if Jireh Ibanes plays.



Photos c/o Interaksyon.com/InterAKTV and PBA Tambayan’s Facebook page

Source: Slamonlineph.com

PREDICTIONS

Their two elims games were very
close and ROS played those games without, IMO, their 2nd best player in
Paul Lee. I think Paul Lee and Chris Tiu coming back will make a big
diff in this series. I have ROS in 3 with 70% confidence. Make that a
hundred if Jireh Ibanes plays.

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